Yemeni escalation phases… an ideal model in battles management

The strategy adopted by Yemen in dealing with the Zionist enemy and its supporters in the battle of the seas, by controlling the course of the battle, grasping its threads, and drawing its boundaries, has proven its effectiveness, success, and efficiency in a manner that has left the entire world in a state of astonishment and amazement, considering the disparities in power and capabilities between the two sides of the battle (Yemen on one side and the American and Western alliance on the other). What is even more astonishing is that the success rate was not insignificant but rather high, to the extent that the port of Umm Al-Rashrash (Eilat) did not receive more than two ships for over 8 months. Although it is known that the Israelis remain tight-lipped about their losses during battles, whether human, military, or economic, the duration of the Yemeni siege on the port of Eilat and the losses incurred by the port made its management lose patience and declare bankruptcy and request support from the Israeli government. In fact, the port’s director, Gideon Golper, stated in one of his statements at the beginning of last June: “There are no solutions to reopen the port, and with the weakness of the coalition forces in the Red Sea, we are ready to pay a ransom to the Houthis in exchange for crossing the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait.”

The comprehensive Yemeni blockade imposed by the Yemeni armed forces on the port of “Eilat” came as a result of a series of successes achieved by the Yemeni armed forces in the theater of operations extending from the Mediterranean Sea in the north, passing through the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and reaching the Indian Ocean in the south, and these successes would not have been achieved in the absence of the strategy that Yemen relied on in dealing with the battle after the help of Allah.

*The escalation phases based on the element of surprise:

Before Yemen entered the battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa, everyone was wondering about the capabilities and capacities of the Yemeni armed forces that qualified them to open a front against the Israeli entity in support of Gaza, especially after statements and hints from revolutionary and political leaders that Sana’a would intervene if the Americans supported the Israeli entity. The surprise came on October 31, 2023, with the announcement by the Yemeni armed forces of launching the first phase against the Israeli entity by carrying out a military operation after two undisclosed operations, represented by launching ballistic and winged missiles and drones at targets of the Israeli enemy in Palestinian territories. This announcement was a shock to everyone, as this phase revealed part of the military capabilities of the Yemeni Armed Forces.

The first phase was not limited to launching rockets and marches towards the occupied Palestinian territories, but the Yemeni armed forces announced on November 19, 2023, the expansion of operations to include targeting ships bearing the flag of the Israeli entity, ships operated by Israeli companies, and ships owned by Israeli companies. On the same day, the Yemeni armed forces announced the seizure of the Israeli ship “Galaxy Leader,” representing a qualitative shift in the Yemeni escalation path and demonstrating the boldness and seriousness of the Yemeni armed forces, which constituted another shock to the Israeli entity.

Over time, and with the belief of the entity’s authorities that they could absorb the operations of this phase by countering rockets and marches heading to the occupied Palestinian territories on the one hand and by using camouflage and manipulation of information on ships heading to their ports while crossing the Red Sea, the Yemeni armed forces moved to launch the second phase of escalation.

When Yemen realized that the Israeli entity had become almost capable of absorbing the first phase, it leaped forward and declared a new phase of escalation, as the armed forces announced on December 9, 2023, the prevention of the passage of ships heading to the Zionist entity of any nationality in the Red Sea, if the Gaza Strip did not receive its needs of food and medicine, as part of expanding the blockade on the entity’s ports and cutting off one of the entity’s economic arteries.

At this phase, the Israeli entity lost its patience and balance and sought American assistance to exert political and military pressure against Yemen. About a week later, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced the formation of an alliance called “Guardian of Prosperity” on December 18, 2023, aimed at protecting Israeli ships in the Red Sea and neutralizing the Yemeni front supporting Gaza. The US believed that once the announcement was made, Yemen would cease its attacks, and if Yemen did not stop, its warships and those of its allies would be tasked with escorting and protecting Israeli ships. However, the American assessment of the situation in the battle in the Red Sea was not accurate, especially with the failure of the warships to provide protection for the Israeli ships in the Red Sea.

After nearly 20 days of announcing the formation of the “Guardians of Prosperity” alliance and the failure of the alliance’s warships to protect Israeli ships, the US took a new reckless step by launching aggression against Yemen. American and British aircraft targeted several sites in multiple Yemeni provinces in an attempt to restore the image of deterrence after failing their mission in the Red Sea. On the other hand, the alliance believed that by conducting airstrikes on some sites, they would destroy warehouses and missile launch platforms, and drones belonging to the Yemeni army. However, this reckless move also failed over time, especially as the armed forces intensified their attacks against ships heading to Israeli ports, expanding their operations to target American and British vessels in retaliation for the aggression against Yemen.

Despite the intensified American and British airstrikes on Yemen, Yemen continued its escalating attacks during this phase against Israeli, American, and British ships, culminating in the sinking of the British ship “Robimar” in the Red Sea at the beginning of last March. Through this sinking operation, the armed forces reaffirmed that there are no red lines or rules of engagement in this battle, and they are prepared to escalate further. This operation further highlighted the failure of the “Guardians of Prosperity” alliance. To compound the alliance’s failure, the armed forces turned to target the same warships that had withdrawn from the theater of operations and others faced fierce battles that the US Navy had not witnessed since World War II, according to the confessions of officers and commanders of American and British ships and frigates.

While the Americans and their allies were unable to swallow the Yemeni shocks and strikes, Yemen leaped forward once again to announce a new stage of escalation—the third stage was declared by the Ansar Allah leader, Sayyid Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, on March 14, 2024. This stage involved expanding operations against Israeli ships or those heading to Israeli ports to include their route in the Indian Ocean. With this move, Yemen affirmed that the theater of operations in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea were under its control. Additionally, this step further underscored the failure of the “Guardians of Prosperity” alliance, which had believed that its raids on Yemen would weaken the military capabilities of the army, but it was surprised by the expansion of the theater of operations, confirming to all that Yemen is the one that controls the course of the battle, determines its rules and draws its borders.

After the third phase of escalation, everyone thought it was the final stage, especially since the operations had achieved their goal of imposing a comprehensive blockade on the port of Umm Al-Rashrash (Eilat). What remaining cards does Yemen have that can be activated against the Israeli entity?!

One day after a speech by the leader of Ansar Allah, Sayyid Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, in which he announced that Yemen was preparing for a fourth round of escalation, the Yemeni armed forces on May 3, 2024, revealed the details of the stage and began its implementation. It came in two parts: the first part includes “targeting all ships violating the Israeli navigation ban and heading to the occupied Palestinian ports from the Mediterranean Sea in any area targeted by the armed forces,” and the second part consists of “imposing comprehensive sanctions on all ships of companies that are related to supplying and entering the occupied Palestinian ports, regardless of their nationality, and preventing all ships of these companies from passing through the operational area of the armed forces, regardless of their destination.”

This phase was particularly harsh on the Israeli entity and its supporters, both in terms of the intensity of the attacks and losses and in terms of expanding the scope by targeting ships heading to the entity’s ports in the Mediterranean Sea.

As for the fifth phase, launched on July 19 targeting the occupied Jaffa “Tel Aviv” with a “Jaffa” aircraft, it was a thunderbolt that struck the entity, described by the Hebrew newspaper Calcalist as: “Every patent that the Jewish head was able to invent, and the Jewish pocket was able to buy was penetrated by a Yemeni plane in a smart operation.”

Looking at the five escalation phases, they relied on the element of surprise for the enemies, expanding the escalation circles without hesitation, standing firm against diplomatic, military, and economic pressures, and not being led by the rules of engagement determined by the enemy. Rather, Yemen is the one who set and determines the rules, and adopting a policy of attack rather than defense. We must not forget the most important element activated by Yemen in this battle, represented by the unprecedented popular support for all stages and operations carried out by the Yemeni armed forces.

Throughout all phases, the armed forces worked on changing their military tactics in defense and offense, and were keen to use of new weapons from time to time. Since the beginning of the operations, there has been continuous development of military capabilities. During this stage, new weapons were announced, with the most important being the “Hathem 2” supersonic missile, indicating that the armed forces greatly benefited from this battle in producing qualitative weapons capable of imposing new equations in any future battle.

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